There is buzz being generated about an analysis from the European Council on Foreign Relations forecasting the end of Vladimir Putin’s rule. How long does he have left? “In the view of this author, the regime has less than a year”. That is a very strong statement. The paper is only six pages long, not counting two pages that are not part of the actual paper. I think his arguments are very interesting and worth reading.
One of the greatest failures of the 20th century was for a veritable army of analysts, both public and private, academics, advisors, and others whose livelihoods depended on their analysis of the Soviet Union to see that very “union” crumble without recognizing it at the time. I have nothing to be proud of. It was not until December of 1988 when Mikhail Gorbachev spoke at the UN General Assembly that I finally accepted that the Soviet Union was really on the way out. I was not alone.
Russia is clearly in a very weak position and there is no particular reason to think it’s going to get out of it any time soon. This time, I will listen carefully to those who have the background to offer a well-reasoned argument for another “surprise”. Whether it comes out the way the author describes or not, or whether it comes soon or later, this is a paper well-worth reading. Thankfully, it’s not a dull boring academic treatise. It is presented in straight-forward language that any of us can understand.
I will give you a link so you can download your own copy. First, an introduction to the author taken from the paper.
“Nikolay Petrov is a visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He was chair of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Society and Regions Program. He worked in the Institute of Geography at the Russian Academy of Sciences from 1982 to 2006. He served as chief organiser of the Analysis and Forecast Division in the Supreme Soviet (1991–1992), was an adviser and analyst for the Russian Presidential Administration (1994–1995), and a scholar at the Kennan Institute for Advanced Russian Studies (1993–1994) and the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (1994). From 1996 to 2000, Petrov worked at the Carnegie Moscow Center as a senior consultant and scholar-in-residence. Petrov earned his Ph.D. from Moscow State University.”
The PDF document can be downloaded here.
I have a new post of my own almost ready, but I will wait until tomorrow for that. This is enough for today. I hope you find it of interest.
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